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July 4, 2025 • Twitter.com/easterneye
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Changing climate
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by SUNDER KATWALA
Director, British Future
DO NOT expect any parties in
Downing Street to celebrate the gov
ernment’s first birthday on Friday
(4). After a rocky year, prime minis
ter Sir Keir Starmer had more than
a few regrets when giving interviews
about his first year in office.
He explained that he chose the
wrong chief of staff. That his opening
economic narrative was too gloomy.
That choosing the winter fuel allow
ance as a symbol of fiscal responsibil
ity backfired. Starmer ‘deeply regret
ted’ the speech he gave to launch his
immigration white paper, from which
only the phrase ‘island of strangers’
cut through. Can any previous politi
cal leader have been quite so self-crit
ical of their own record in real time?
This unconventional approach
could be a reminder of Starmer’s best
quality: that he is the antithesis of US
president Donald Trump. Trump has
a narcissistic need to be the main
character, a hyperactive addiction to
conflict, the attention span of a tod
dler and no interest in policy sub
stance beyond the television and so
cial media optics. So Trump is the
disruptor in chief of global trade, se
curity and the US constitutional or
der. Given a binary choice, it is infi
nitely better to have the serious sobri
ety of Starmer, trying to cooperate
with allies to limit Trump’s chaotic
contributions to increased insecurity.
Yet, it is a contrast that could be
taken too far. Trump realises that pol
itics is about what you say as well as
what you do. What Starmer is palpa
bly still missing is a clear public
story of what his government is
for. This was partly a matter of
choice. A gritty public mood
has little appetite for new vi
sions, unless shown tangible
progress first. It reflects the
taciturn character of the leader
too. Yet the issue is not simply
one of communication. The
challenge of finding a narrative
reflects uncertainty about the stra
tegic direction of the government.
Judged by its actions, this
is a centre-left govern
ment. It has made many
decisions that the previous Conserva
tive government would not have tak
en. It changed the fiscal rules, borrow
ing much more for investment. De
spite the constraints of its manifesto
pledges on most taxes, it did raise
taxes so as to have more to spend on
the NHS, and on housebuilding. The
government is committed to higher
defence spending, and also to net ze
ro, to closer UK-EU relations, within
the ‘red lines’ which Labour set out, as
it takes care to check if it can take the
public with it. It will work with multi
lateral institutions, rather than quit
ting treaties and conventions.
If this is a centre-left
government in its
deeds, it may prefer
to self-identify as
something
else,
without
quite
managing to artic
ulate what that is.
So this has been a
very tactical gov
ernment, which
has changed its mind about most of
its tactical choices. The Comprehen
sive Spending Review was intended
as a reset moment, in giving the gov
ernment clearer priorities, though it
has been challenging to make the
numbers add up. But the parliamen
tary rebellion over its welfare bill
could prove a more significant turn
ing point. A government which won a
landslide had lost its majority once
125 of its MPs – a majority of the
backbench – declared they were un
able to pass a government bill with
out a significant change. This was
about the substantive impact of heavy
income losses for disabled people –
and the lack of a rationale beyond
saving money. This rebellion is also
about the political strategy of the gov
ernment. Much of the parliamentary
group seem diminishing returns in
actively picking fights with progres
sives who Labour will need to keep
the populism of Reform leader Nigel
Farage out.
Can Starmer fix his government?
The prime minister is 62 years old. He
cannot change his personality or
working style, not metamorphosis
into a visionary speech-maker. There
is little point in advisers inventing
hypothetical strategies – such as
choosing to present Starmer as a
radical insurgent, rather than the so
ber incumbent, which cannot fit with
the prime minister they have got, and
his gradualist agenda for long-term
change. Yet Starmer could use his
evident capacity for self-reflection to
identify feasible changes. He needs to
repair how his Downing Street opera
tion makes decisions – and now
knows that backbench support is
not unconditional.
Facing a fragmented opposition,
Labour’s chances of re-election in
four years time may be underesti
mated. Yet most of Labour’s tactical
mistakes have come from trying to
run a permanent election campaign
in government, four years early. The
government needs to govern to gen
erate the substantive record and fu
ture agenda it would defend from the
populist right in 2029. Australia’s An
thony Albanese, who faced many
similar criticisms to Starmer, bounced
back to get re-elected, though the
Canadian Liberals changed leaders to
defeat the right. How many years
Starmer has left in Downing Street is
anybody’s guess. This time next year,
he would need a stronger story to tell.
‘One year on, Starmer has
no story but many regrets
by Dr Nik Kotecha OBE DL,
Chairman of the Randal
Charitable Foundation
I AM delighted to pause and re
flect on a pioneering partnership
project that brought together our
Randal Charitable Foundation,
Leicestershire Police and the Centre
for Social Justice (CSJ) to sup
port pupils from five
Leicester schools.
The initiative enabled
them to tour London
and the Houses of Par
liament, with the aim of
raising aspirations and
demonstrating possible
future career paths. With more
young people than ever struggling to
stay in education, find employment
and track down career opportuni
ties, I’ve reflected on the importance
of collaborations like this one, which
model just one way in that small in
terventions could reap rewards in
the life course of youngsters.
New data released by the Depart
ment for Education showed over a
quarter of a million school suspen
sions in spring 2024 – a 12 per cent
increase on the previous year. Other
studies, including by the Centre for
Social Justice, show devastating sta
tistics, including that there’s almost
one million 16- to 24-year-olds in
the UK who are Not in Education,
Employment or Training (NEET) –
that’s one in seven who are eco
nomically inactive and not looking
for work. The need for creative in
terventions is real, and pressing.
Our visit was organised in the
summer of 2023, with a simple aim -
to help inspire underprivileged
young people to gain the opportuni
ties and motivations to reach their
full potential. They travelled to Lon
don by coach for a briefing at the
CSJ’s offices in Smith Square, after
which they walked along the Em
bankment to the Houses of Parlia
ment and Lords, for a guided tour.
Inspired by the trip, our partners
have recently reported that a num
ber of the young people have begun
following their dreams and finding
their passions. One pupil who took
part, a ‘looked after child’, has now
completed school with impressive
exam results and reportedly fre
quently mentioned the experience
and how much they enjoyed the vis
it throughout their final year.
Another has blossomed into what
teachers call a ‘superstar’, with strong
attendance and a positive influence
on others. Perhaps most touching is
a pupil who, despite challenges at
home, has developed a passion for
politics and is thriving academically
with aspirations for public service. I
believe key moments in the lives of
young people can be turning points,
for good and for bad. This trip alone
didn’t change lives, of course. But it
did allow a moment in time to ex
plore possibilities - and create some
curiosity about different futures,
which I’m delighted to see now be
ing translated.
Our foundation’s investment,
Leicestershire Police’s community
outreach through the Mini Police
programme, and specialist support
from CSJ colleagues made this mo
ment possible. We built on positive
ties between police, schools and pu
pils to make a difference together.
A precious moment indeed.
LABOUR SHOULD SET OUT A CLEAR AGENDA FOR GOVERNANCE, SAYS EXPERT
Early intervention shows how ‘young lives can be transformed’
LEADERSHIP TEST: Sir Keir Starmer
on the steps of Downing Street after
Labour won the general election in July
last year; and (below) Sunder Katwala
© Christopher Furlong/Getty Images
RAISING HOPES:
Dr Nik Kotecha
BRITAIN is sweltering under another
heatwave, with parts of England
reaching 34–35°C. Amber health
alerts cover much of the country,
straining public services. Scientists
warn these extreme events are be
coming more frequent and intense
due to climate change.
While the UK swelters, south Asia,
including India and Pakistan, has
seen heavy rains. In India, the mon
soon has triggered floods and land
slides across Kerala, Gujarat, Maha
rashtra, Telangana and the northeast.
Surat and Silchar have broken rain
fall records, with villages submerged
and many forced into relief camps
In Pakistan, flash floods in Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa killed 11 people, de
stroyed homes and left families
stranded. Such disasters are not iso
lated. They result from a warming
planet, with rising temperatures
fuelling longer heatwaves in Europe
and fiercer monsoons in south Asia.
In the UK, there must be a focus
on better ventilation in buildings de
signed to retain heat, and on roads
and railways that struggle with rising
temperatures. Emergency plans are
vital to protect the elderly and vul
nerable from heat-related illness.
Across south Asia, governments
urgently need flood-proof housing,
early warning systems, and updated
water treaties between India and Pa
kistan to reflect changing rainfall.
Global leaders must invest in cli
mate adaptation, strengthen infra
structure and shift to clean energy.
The climate crisis is not a distant
threat but our reality.